Playing the Odds

As I start to tell more and more people about our upcoming IVF journey, the most common question I get is: ‘What are your chances?’*

And honestly, I am always stumped.

I mean DE IVF has great success rates, much higher than own egg IVF. Something like 60-80% success depending on what studies you read and which clinic you go to.

But I have thin lining issues, and with a lining under 7mm the reviews are mixed. Some say the odds go down, others say there is no impact. For example, this article that shows the implantation and clinical pregnancy rate was the same between two groups of women using DE IVF – lining between 5.9 to 7.9mm and  lining between 8.0mm to 23.0mm – around 60-75%.

But then I am also at a higher risk for miscarriage, I think one study I read said that those with radiation damage to the uterus saw an increased risk of miscarriage of about 30% (compared to the average of around 20%). And that risk goes for as long as 22 weeks. Leaving aside the increased risk of low birth weight and premature labour.

So what are my odds of success?

I know there is no easy answer. That is why I have never asked my RE that question. The answer will be some version of ‘I don’t know’. But the last time we spoke the RE said he was hopeful. I’m going to translate that into: over 50% chance of success. Seems reasonable right? I mean, its not like anyone can prove me wrong, or right for that matter.

So yeh. That’s what I am telling people. The odds are 50-50. It is also a fun way to weed out the optimists from the pessimists.


*By ‘more and more people’ I mean two more friends. The grand total of people that know can still be counted on my fingers.

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